Daily Time Frame– AAPL is showing bullish divergence in RSI and MACD. Needs to reclaim 10EMA and I see possible move to 444-450. On other side, if AAPL can’t stay above 426.01, we could see possible move to 419. 10EMA is also nearing 21EMA(bullish-temporarily), as they could cross or bounce off of each other. 21EMA was tested this week and was violently rejected. Possible retest this week to 10EMA and 21EMA, and will look to see if we can reclaim as support.
Weekly Time Frame– AAPL shows Bullish Divergence only in RSI on weekly chart. 419 is major support and we’ve seen it rejected twice very hard. RSI is now showing ascending support line(bullish). This weeks candle looks like an inverted hammer(Bearish). Watching support line in RSI as well as fast line in RSI line as signals in AAPL are very mixed; however, I see more bullish(temporary moves) indications then bearish.
Daily Time Frame– This week most people had felt that AAPL had an island reversal or saw the 10EMA cross above the 21EMA or felt like the downtrend line had been violated or that we crossed the 50SMA. All these were great reasons to be bullish; however, there were still key reasons to be cautious, and hopefully people will learn from this as we have seen the caution signs play out more than once during this downtrend. First off, the downtrend line is NEVER established until we have established a new uptrend. It can change(as I have in the chart above) from previous charts. It can be violated at anytime and it doesn’t indicate a reversal. The volume was another factor in indicating that this was possibly a headfake(weak). After saying all this, I am not stating we are going to 405 or 360. I need more confirmation. I do, however, think we could reach gap fill at 435(ish). Bear Flag indicates we could see 405. That is very possible as well, but I will take it one day at a time.
Weekly Time Frame– 10EMA was key this week as we could not close above it. We formed Dark Cloud Cover, which is a very bearish candlestick pattern. Could test 10EMA again before heading further down. RSI is angled down. Watch as the 200EMA is inching closer to 200SMA. If they cross, that is bearish for price action.
Monthly Time Frame– 10EMA is quickly approaching the 21EMA for a potential cross down(Bearish) or a possible bounce(bullish). This will be important to watch in coming months(1-5). We saw this cross occur in 2008, and it only lasted for a few months until crossing back above 21EMA. 50EMA would be ultimate support(with possible violation), and afterwards we could see a possible resumption of uptrend. RSI is starting to flatten, and 40 level appears to be resistance based on history. Keep eye on that resistance level(40).
Daily Time Frame– 10 EMA crossed above 21 EMA on Thursday. For the first time since October 5 of 2012 AAPL crossed above the 50SMA on Friday. The last time we saw the 10EMA cross above the 21EMA was post earnings in late July last ear where the stock ran to it’s All Time High. We also have a cup and handle dating back from Feb 19th that gives $AAPL a target of 495/496(ish). RSI is pointing up, and we are partially breaking out of a Bull Flag. All of these arguments make a strong case for a bull run in $AAPL. The strongest case in my opinion is the cross of the 10EMA over 21EMA, and the other indicators help confirm. There is also a bullish divergence in the RSI dating back from Feb 11th.
Weekly Time Frame– 10EMA has not crossed above the 21EMA. 10EMA looks to be resistance currently. 21EMA has been stronger resistance since 10EMA crossed below in the first week of November last year. That may be where this bounce ends; however there is a bullish divergence on RSI dating back from the week of Feb 4th. We do have a case for bullishness on the Weekly.
Monthly Time Frame– On the monthly, we have an interesting look here. The 10EMA looks as if it could be crossing below the 21 EMA(possibly around $500-550 price area). Currently, I see a bullish looking candlestick where we have a medium wick that shows where we hit lows and bounced. I see a bullish case here(short term). RSI is angled slightly up for first time since July of 2012. One theory I have is that we could be flagging on Monthly for a month or two (possibly) before heading much lower.
Why these two moving averages? Because they can (NOT ALWAYS) carry great significance when they cross. They do not always play out with large moves to the upside/downside, but when they do, you can make a lot of money swing trading them. Also, they carry great significance the longer time frame you use to analyze a particular stock. I will analyze different stocks using these two moving averages. This is more of a Journal for me, but can be informative for others as well. I also use 50SMA and 200SMA in my charts, as they hold great significance as well.